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Tropical Depression MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE MODEST EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM MAZATLAN BRINGING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING FEATURES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THE INNER-CORE
CONVECTION WEST OF MAZATLAN HAS BEEN DECREASING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB...T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...AND A
UW-CIMSS ADT VALUE OF T2.4/34 KT.  

MANUEL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315/05 KT.  A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS MANUEL MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED 
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY
48-72 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW TO
ALSO WEAKEN. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
THE COLD WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C SSTS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA...MORE RAPID
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH MANUEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96
HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANUEL COULD PEAK AT A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 23.0N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC