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Tropical Storm LORENA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE THAT
LORENA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS MORE ELONGATED...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED...AND
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 35 KT. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LORENA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE TREND SEEN IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. LORENA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IT WEAKENS...AND ITS
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST BY SUNDAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 23.2N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 23.6N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:30 UTC