Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LORENA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013
 
RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF LORENA IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  SOME BANDING
IS EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL
SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENA
INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 6-12 H.  AFTER THAT TIME...
ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE.  SINCE IT IS SUCH A
WEAK SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH...LORENA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
AND/OR DISSIPATE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODEL PREDICTIONS...THE LATTER OF WHICH HAVE DONE A FINE JOB ON
ANTICIPATING THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING.
 
LORENA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER PACE...315/10.
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED....AND AS THE
STORM WEAKENS...IT SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD.  THE PRIMARY
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE
GETS BEFORE IT DECOUPLES VERTICALLY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF THE GFDL/HWRF
FORECASTS WHICH SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY LYING NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 22.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.1N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 23.8N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 24.3N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 25.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:30 UTC