Tropical Storm LORENA

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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013
 
LORENA IS DISPLAYING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH THESE HAVE QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE ADT VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS TWO SHIPS NEAR THE CENTER DO NOT
SUGGEST A WELL-DEVELOPED INNER CORE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35
KT.

STANDARD INFRARED...SHORTWAVE INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT...WITH A MORE
THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.  LORENA IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AFTER INTERACTION WITH
LAND...LORENA SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS PRIMARILY BASED
UPON THE GFS..GFS ENSEMBLE..AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LORENA DOES HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT TIME IS RUNNING
SHORT.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS
TRAVERSING SSTS OF 29C.  HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
CIRCULATION OF LORENA WILL BE IMPACTED BY BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
RESTRICT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW
IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS..AND HWRF MODELS AND
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN ALTERNATIVE...BUT
UNLIKELY SCENARIO...IS FOR LORENA TO TRAVERSE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL
COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 21.3N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.2N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 23.7N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 24.3N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
 
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