ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013 SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT... AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR IT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SPRAWLING NATURE AND LACK OF AN INNER CORE SUGGEST THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE GRADUAL. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INGEST STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.6N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 19.7N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 20.8N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:30 UTC