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Hurricane HENRIETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013
 
THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER
RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15
HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE
LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE
TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER.
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE 
09/0600 UTC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:26 UTC