Hurricane HENRIETTE

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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013
 
HENRIETTE IS NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 6-12 HOURS AGO.  THERE
HAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE
COULD BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR.  DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SOME...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND T4.4 FROM THE ADT.  BASED ON THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING
LOWERED TO 75 KT.

THE RECENT WEAKENING COULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY FOR 24 HOURS OR SO.  MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE WITHIN 36 HOURS AS HENRIETTE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INGESTS MORE STABLE AIR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME. 
AFTER 36 HOURS...THE WEAKENING RATE MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.

HENRIETTE IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT AS IT HEADS TOWARD A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  A RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE
COMING DAYS...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD ALSO BECOME STEERED BY LOWER-
LEVEL RIDGING AS IT WEAKENS.  THEREFORE...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  A NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER AMONG THE
TRACK MODELS IS THE ECMWF...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 15.6N 133.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 16.3N 135.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 17.0N 137.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 17.3N 139.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 17.1N 141.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 15.5N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 14.5N 156.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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