Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HENRIETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013
 
WHILE THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE 
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES. SOME
LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT TIME MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS
THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT TIME. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09...AS HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND A MOTION TO THE SOUTH
OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LATEST
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.1N 133.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 15.8N 134.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 16.6N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 17.1N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 16.3N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 15.5N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:26 UTC