Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING.  A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT...A CONSENSUS
OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
 
HENRIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/4 KT.  THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE
TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING WELL WEST OF THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL
HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.  AS A
RESULT...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND STAY ON THAT GENERAL
HEADING DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF HENRIETTE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS HENRIETTE
MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DURING THAT TIME...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CROSS
A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HALT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
WHEN THE CYCLONE TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MOVES ALONG
THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  THE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IF
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH
FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.  CONVERSELY...IF HENRIETTE IS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK... THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 12.1N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 12.6N 129.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 13.6N 130.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 14.7N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 15.6N 134.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 16.9N 137.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 17.0N 146.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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