Tropical Depression EIGHT-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT THE WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE
STABLE AIR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE SHOULD
WEAKEN AND A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN. THE
GFS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MOVING WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 12.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 12.7N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 12.5N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 12.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 13.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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