ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 GIL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS TO RESET THE REMNANT LOW CLOCK BACK TO ZERO...AND A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES AROUND 07Z SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS WINDS OF 25-30 KT. THE ASCAT PASSES WERE ALSO HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT 250/7...AND SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AND THE UNDERLYING SSTS OF 27C COULD SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ROUGHLY STEADY STATE FOR GIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW UNTIL TOMORROW. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE CURRENT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION... GIL WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.4N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 13.0N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.6N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 12.5N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 12.5N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z 13.5N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 14.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC