Tropical Storm GIL

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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
GIL HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT
SEVEN HOURS NOW.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS JUST CLIPPED THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WHILE IT DID NOT CAPTURE WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE...IT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.  THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT MAINLY BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  DUE TO
STABLE AIR...20 KT OF SHEAR...AND BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...
GIL MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IF DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...GIL COULD BE DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SOON AS LATER TODAY.
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A RELATIVELY MINOR RELOCATION WAS
REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/8 KT.
WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW AND IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
ON THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVING
TO DO WITH THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN OUTLIER...
SHOWING GIL BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS AND MOVING MUCH
MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
NEARLY AS FAST AS THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE SINCE GIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 14.6N 135.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.2N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 13.7N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 13.1N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 12.6N 141.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 12.0N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 11.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z 11.5N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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