Tropical Storm GIL
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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK OVERNIGHT...IT LACKS
BANDING FEATURES AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEARING APART. THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 35 TO 65 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 50 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
MODERATE WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT
GIL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATER AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THEREFORE...SLOW WEAKENING IS
PREDICTED THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
GIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...DUE IN PART TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW GIL INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST LIES MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 14.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.0N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 14.8N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.5N 135.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 14.0N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 13.3N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 13.0N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 13.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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