Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GIL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF BOTH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS AT
30/2227 UTC INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
MORE THAN 70 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND ADT...AND A 2124 UTC AMSU
ESTIMATE OF 48 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAL AND
EXPANDING...WITH A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAVING BECOME
BECOME ESTABLISHED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REAMINS 285/13 BASED ON VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX DATA.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE NORTH OF GIL. THIS VERY STABLE STEERING FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST THEREAFTER. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS GIL APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
BASED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A CDO-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING...PLUS THE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURE NOTED IN
THE LATEST AMSU MICROWAVE DATA...GIL APPEARS POISED TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTFLOW
PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND EXPAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE TOO LOW.
REGARDLESS...OF THE DEVELOPMENT RATE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. AFTER A
SHORT LEVELING OFF PERIOD...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND BY 96 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 13.1N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 13.6N 119.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 14.2N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 14.7N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 15.2N 125.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 15.9N 128.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 16.4N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 16.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC