Tropical Storm FLOSSIE
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
0900 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 8 10 23 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 5 13 29 32 46 NA
TROPICAL STORM 69 73 68 56 52 30 NA
HURRICANE 31 22 17 7 5 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 31 21 15 6 5 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 1 X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 50KT 40KT 35KT 30KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 145W 34 1 22(23) 36(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
20N 145W 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 4(26) X(26)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) X(23)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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