| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013

CORRECTED FOR CPHC HEADER INFORMATION
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN.  THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT
EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE
STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17.  THE
STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE
TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  ALMOST ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN
60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  

FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP1 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA31 PHFO.  FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER
HFOTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:22 UTC