Tropical Storm FLOSSIE
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013
CORRECTED FOR CPHC HEADER INFORMATION
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT
EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE
STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17. THE
STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE
TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN
60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP1 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA31 PHFO. FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER
HFOTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN