| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Depression FIVE-E (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013               
2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       4       7       9      12      22      32
TROP DEPRESSION 33      30      25      28      29      41      45
TROPICAL STORM  65      62      59      52      53      35      23
HURRICANE        1       4       9      10       6       2       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       3       8       9       6       2       1
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    35KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)   6(21)   X(21)   1(22)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   6( 6)  14(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X  10(10)   7(17)   2(19)   X(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC