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Hurricane ERICK


ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
...CENTER OF ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 106.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
EARLY SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER WESTERN GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC