ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 109.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH NNNN
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