Hurricane ERICK

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
...ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MAINLAND MEXICO EAST OF MANZANILLO...AND DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK
SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY
CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY
MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...NAYARIT...AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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