Tropical Storm ERICK

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
...ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.7N 103.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...
SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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