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Hurricane ERICK


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HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO AND HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH EAST OF MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.7W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.7W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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