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Tropical Storm ERICK (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THE HINT OF AN EYE OBSERVED EARLIER IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
IS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL
DEFINED RING OF CONVECTION WHICH NORMALLY LEADS THE FORMATION OF AN
EYE. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT ERICK IS NOT A HURRICANE YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON IR AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...ERIC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36
HOURS...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER
WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
 
ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AND
THIS BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...PRIMARILY
THE GFS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST RUN.
IN FACT...THE GFS MADE A BIG CHANGE IN THE 1800 UTC RUN AND NOW HAS
ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...AND IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. BEYOND
36 HOURS...ERICK WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THIS PATTERN WOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.

SINCE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
BASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 16.7N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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