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Tropical Depression DALILA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
FINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT
CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED
UNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE
OUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST
OF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY.

DALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
WILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN
THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:19 UTC