Tropical Depression DALILA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT
LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE
LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER
A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
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