Tropical Depression DALILA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT...
T2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW
ENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY.
HOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING
WEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM
THE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT.
REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE
OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI
TO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO
DALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN
GREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA
WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.
 
EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH
ERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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