Tropical Depression DALILA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH
IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A PERFECTLY PLACED
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS
FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE
CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL
STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION
TO CEASE FOR GOOD. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A
REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
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