Tropical Storm DALILA
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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER
OSCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY
WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DALILA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.
DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...
THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BROWN
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