Tropical Storm DALILA
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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE
PASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
REMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...
LATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BE
LOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOT
STORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
INCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.
DALILA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY...TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 17.6N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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