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Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013
 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF DALILA HAS IMPROVED. IN
FACT...37 GHZ AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM A 30/1857Z TRMM OVERPASS
REVEALED THAT A 70 PERCENT CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYEWALL HAD
DEVELOPED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF 45 KT...30 KT...AND 47 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND UW-CIMSS ADT...RESPECTIVELY.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN MOTION OF 315/09 KT. THE MASSIVE HEAT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ALSO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
STAGNANT STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AND TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS TAKING DALILA
SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STABLE THE
PAST FEW CYCLES...KEEP DALILA MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A ROBUST TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE...AND THAT TRACK SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AT ONLY 3 KT...THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FROM A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE
HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MORE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...WHICH
COULD BE A SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR KICKS IN.
DALILA IS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT IT IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND
DOWN. SO FOR NOW...A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION UNTIL A SOLID INTENSIFICATION SIGNAL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW SHOWS DALILA REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE 
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 16.8N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.3N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.7N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 18.9N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 19.0N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:18 UTC