Tropical Storm DALILA
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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB. DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.
RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
OR NEAR 340/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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