Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.   THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
OR NEAR 340/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:18 UTC