Tropical Storm COSME

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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS BEEN DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED IN THE
VERTICAL.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  COSME WILL SOON BE
MOVING OVER SUB-22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO CONTINUED STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...295/12.  COSME IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF COSME...OR ITS REMNANTS...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 24
TO 48 HOURS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE
IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 19.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 20.4N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 21.3N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z 21.7N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 22.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 22.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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