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Tropical Storm COSME (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013
 
COSME HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING PHASE...AS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER CLOSED. BASED UPON THE INFRARED
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE TAFB AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE DROPPED TO 3.0/4.0...WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INDICATES T3.7 OR 55-60 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 60
KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. A 0937Z AMSU SATELLITE PASS
PROVIDED GUIDANCE ON THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS ALONG WITH AN 1106Z SSMI PASS ALLOW FOR
A FAIRLY CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF COSME. 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT...DUE TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  COSME SHOULD
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BENDING
WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...IN PART DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
INITIAL POSITION.  THE TRACK PREDICTION IS LIKEWISE SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WHILE COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECAY DUE
TO TRAVERSING COLD WATER.  EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS...WHEN COSME REACHES 22C SSTS TOMORROW THE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO COLLAPSE...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS A BIT BELOW THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING DAY OR SO.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.9N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 20.8N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 21.8N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 22.3N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 22.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z 22.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
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