Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm COSME


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013
 
COSME HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING PHASE...AS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER CLOSED. BASED UPON THE INFRARED
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE TAFB AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE DROPPED TO 3.0/4.0...WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INDICATES T3.7 OR 55-60 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 60
KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. A 0937Z AMSU SATELLITE PASS
PROVIDED GUIDANCE ON THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS ALONG WITH AN 1106Z SSMI PASS ALLOW FOR
A FAIRLY CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF COSME. 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT...DUE TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  COSME SHOULD
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BENDING
WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...IN PART DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
INITIAL POSITION.  THE TRACK PREDICTION IS LIKEWISE SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WHILE COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECAY DUE
TO TRAVERSING COLD WATER.  EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS...WHEN COSME REACHES 22C SSTS TOMORROW THE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO COLLAPSE...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS A BIT BELOW THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING DAY OR SO.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.9N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 20.8N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 21.8N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 22.3N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 22.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z 22.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:16 UTC