Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane COSME


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS
FORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE.  CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE
12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER.  THIS
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.

WHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...
COSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO
ITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS.  ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH
SUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
PEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER
HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS.  THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR
SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:16 UTC