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Tropical Depression BARBARA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013
 
BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.

DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 17.8N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 18.7N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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