ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013 800 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013 BARBARA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY RECENT REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT BASED ON A NORMAL INLAND DECAY RATE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND BARBARA IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS BARBARA EMERGING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION AT THAT POINT...AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING WATER. IN ANY CASE...ONCE THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. OF MORE IMMINENT CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH BARBARA IS WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 17.1N 93.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 18.1N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 18.8N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:15 UTC