Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB.  THEREFORE...
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BEST
GUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELS
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.
 
THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELD
AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 14.2N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 14.9N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 16.2N  95.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 17.6N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 18.6N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
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