Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MELISSA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS
WRAPPED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
EARLIER TODAY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...AND ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A LITTLE
SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERIES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...
MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.
 
MELISA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060 DEGREES AT
26 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. SINCE THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
MUCH...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR
SOONER. THE NHC FOREAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 37.2N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 39.0N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 41.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/0600Z 42.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  22/1800Z 43.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z 42.0N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:10 UTC