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Subtropical Storm MELISSA (Text)

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SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013
 
VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA
IS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER
CORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD
BAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED
ON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE
WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY
96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST
AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
JUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD
HELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 31.9N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 33.9N  52.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 36.6N  48.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 39.5N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 42.2N  37.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z 46.5N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/1200Z 53.2N  26.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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