Tropical Storm KAREN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 7 16 25 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 31 42 48 43 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 68 49 35 31 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
MOBILE AL 34 2 7( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 5 14(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 8 15(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 19 23(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 8 10(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
JACKSON MS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 22 15(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 12 6(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN