Tropical Storm KAREN
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TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 6 11 18 35 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 34 37 37 40 36 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 65 55 50 40 28 NA NA
HURRICANE X 2 2 2 2 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 2 2 2 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
BURAS LA 34 7 18(25) 12(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 7 11(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 10(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 53 8(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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