Tropical Storm KAREN

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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  90.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  90.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  90.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.1N  90.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.1N  90.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.0N  88.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 34.5N  80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N  90.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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