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Tropical Storm KAREN


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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  88.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  88.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  88.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.6N  89.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.2N  89.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.6N  89.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.8N  89.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N  80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N  88.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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