Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression JERRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013
 
JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW
ABOUT 050/10.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JERRY SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  AFTER
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 31.0N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 31.9N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 32.9N  35.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 33.9N  33.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 35.2N  31.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 38.5N  27.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:06 UTC