Tropical Storm JERRY

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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013
 
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION.  THE CENTER IS NOT READILY DISCERNABLE...BUT IS
ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD
MASS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT...IN PARTICULAR THE VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THIS IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
SEEMINGLY OVER-AGGRESSIVE LGEM AND THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS
THAT SHOW DISSIPATION OR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY 5 DAYS.

JERRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD...085/6...BUT THIS MOTION IS
NOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...MUCH OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN JERRY MOVING IN A
CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BE CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT 500
MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JERRY
WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4-5 DAYS...AND RESPOND TO
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF MODEL...IS FOR JERRY TO WEAKEN TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY
THAT TIME AND DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 27.3N  44.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 27.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 26.7N  45.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 26.7N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 27.2N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 28.5N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 30.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 32.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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