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Tropical Depression ELEVEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...IT
HAS LESS OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 30
KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DECREASING SOME
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE DRIER AIR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM.
THESE MIXED SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE
GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
065/8. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 27.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 27.1N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 26.9N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 26.6N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 26.4N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 27.0N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 29.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 31.5N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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