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Tropical Depression ELEVEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A NARROW BAND OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 25-30 KT...SO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  LATER ON...THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR SO SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO.  THE LATEST GFS RUN DOES
NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 050/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND 
TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS
THE HFIP STREAM 1.5 MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
EXECUTING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 26.0N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 26.7N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 26.8N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 26.5N  46.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 26.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 26.5N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 27.5N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 29.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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